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We are moving closer every day to a world influenza pandemic.
New cases of bird flu are being discovered in more countries. 88
people worldwide since 2003, who have had close contact with
infected birds have died. Scientists fear that when the bird flu
virus mutates or mixes with normal influenza viruses then it
will be in a form that passes easily from person to person. The
1918 influenza that killed 40-50 million people world wide,
started in Kansas and moved around the world within 9 months.
And that was without the type of air travel we have today.
Governments around the world are scrambling to prevent this from
happening. Billions of dollars in new aid is going for
surveillance and reporting of new cases as they happen, prevent
them from spreading and stockpiling antivirals in the event it
does happen. The medical community is working on new vaccines
that may be used on a wide scale in the event of an outbreak.
But will all this be enough? High volume production and
distribution of a pandemic vaccine could take 6 months or more
after the start of a pandemic event. Government reporting of new
cases could be delayed long enough for preventive aid from doing
any good. New cases in rural areas could go undetected for weeks
or months.
Once human transmission is confirmed, containment will be the
next big hurdle. As millions become ill, the global economy will
start to feel the effects. Transportation, travel, tourism,
trade, retail, education will all suffer. Panic could wreck
havoc with the world financial markets in short order. Hospitals
will be overwhelmed. Every hospital in the country will have a
shortage of beds, ventilators and staff. In the event of a
natural disaster, it is one thing for aid to come from other
areas but in the event of a pandemic no one will have the aid or
manpower to spare.
The World Bank has estimated that a influenza pandemic lasting a
year would cost the global economy $800 billion dollars. How
would we recover from that? The economic consequences of a
influenza pandemic would be catastrophic. Businesses large and
small will be affected by loss of workers, supplies and
distribution of goods and services. Some businesses will never
recover. Those who do may be missing key employees who died.
Economic recovery will be painfully slow.
A flu pandemic would affect some of the world's poorest people
the hardest. They are the ones who don't have access to proper
health care now. They are the ones who are falling through the
social services cracks now. Elderly persons who are already
homebound, may be forgotten about. In countries in Africa that
are already devastated by HIV, poor health care, famine and war,
whole nations could be wiped out.
Social unrest and political upheaval are sure to follow.
Governments will be blamed for doing too little too late.
Conspiracies about how pharmaceutical companies withheld new
vaccines or antivirals will be rampant. Price gouging, profit
motives and horror stories about how people suffered will fill
the news for months to come. A different political landscape
will form to make sure this kind of suffering never happens
again.
A global flu pandemic will affect the lives of everyone with
catastrophic results. You need to continue to stay informed on
the latest bird flu news and how you can prepare for a pandemic.
Health experts agree it is just a matter of time that there will
be a pandemic.
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